World Bank Reality Check: PH Economy Won't Hit 6% Growth Until After Marcos Leaves

Here's a sobering forecast that the Marcos administration probably doesn't want to hear: the World Bank projects the Philippine economy will grow only 4.6% in 2026 — way below the government's own 5-6% target. And it gets worse, kasi the Middle East conflict could drag that number even closer to last year's disappointing 4.4%.

BPI Lead Economist Emilio Neri Jr. warned on DAILY TRIBUNE's Straight Talk program that if the Middle East war drags on beyond a few more weeks, household consumption and GDP growth could sink further. "If this drags on for three or six months, even slower numbers have to be anticipated," he said. Neri is maintaining BPI's forecast that the peso will depreciate to P59.70 per dollar by year-end.

The World Bank's latest documents, prepared for an $800-million development loan approved last week, show 5.3% growth projected for 2027 and 5.5% for 2028 — still below the government's targets. The lender cited weaker public investment due to anti-corruption efforts and a significantly lower infrastructure budget in 2026 as key headwinds.

Meanwhile, the BSP is now bracing for inflation to breach the 4% target as oil prices surge. Neri noted the central bank may need to reverse its recent rate cuts — a nightmare scenario of high inflation combined with slow growth. Domestic pump prices have already crossed P100 per liter in some areas, and Congress is rushing to give the President emergency powers to suspend excise and VAT on fuel.

"That combination of high inflation and slow growth — it's actually one of the toughest scenarios that policymakers will have to face," Neri warned. "Very few segments of society will be spared." The BSP said it is closely monitoring Middle East developments ahead of its next policy meeting on April 23.

Sources: Manila Bulletin — World Bank sees 2026 PH growth at 4.6% | Daily Tribune — PH economy at risk from Middle East conflict