Warning Shot for PH Economy: Fitch Says Oil Shock Could Pressure Credit Rating

A fresh warning just landed for the Philippine economy. Fitch Ratings said the country’s credit profile could come under pressure if slower growth drags on and the latest oil shock from the Middle East turns into a longer, more structural problem.

Fitch senior director Jeremy Zook said the agency still sees the slowdown as temporary for now, but stressed that rating risks would rise if weak growth becomes more deeply embedded. The Philippines currently holds a 'BBB' rating with a stable outlook, supported by its medium-term growth prospects and relatively large economy among peers.

The problem, ayon sa Fitch, is that the country is a big net energy importer. If oil supply disruptions keep prices elevated, the Philippines could face a wider current account deficit, more inflation pressure, and a shakier macro picture overall.

Zook pointed to the 2022 energy shock, when the country’s net energy import bill climbed by about 2.75 percentage points of GDP. He said a similar situation this year, especially if oil averages around $100 per barrel, could again hit growth and force policymakers to manage both inflation and weaker demand at the same time.

Fitch is still expecting a recovery in 2026, partly from stronger capital spending, but it may be slower than first hoped if energy prices stay mataas. The agency also warned that subsidies meant to cushion households and businesses could widen the fiscal deficit and slow the government’s push to bring debt levels down.

Source: The Manila Times — https://www.manilatimes.net/2026/03/20/business/top-business/oil-weak-economy-could-test-ph-rating/2303955