Top 20 by 2050: Capital Economics Says PH Economy Is Rising — But Corruption Could Ruin Everything

Here’s some good news and bad news for Filipinos. The good: the Philippines is projected to become the 19th-largest economy in the world by 2050, jumping from its current 30th-place ranking. The bad: entrenched corruption and political instability could throw a wrench into those plans.

London-based think tank Capital Economics released its Long-Run Economic Outlook 2026 report on February 18, projecting the Philippines’ nominal GDP to grow an average of 5.1% annually from 2031 to reach $3.51 trillion by 2050. The country joins Vietnam and Bangladesh as emerging economies set to break into the global top 20.

But here’s the catch — Vietnam is projected to leapfrog the Philippines, rising from 31st to 14th place with a $4.6 trillion GDP. Even more striking, Vietnamese GDP per capita is forecast to hit $41,959 by 2050, compared to the Philippines’ $24,265. So while we’re growing, our neighbors could be growing faster.

The near-term picture isn’t exactly rosy either. The Philippine economy grew just 4.4% in 2025 — the weakest in nine years outside of pandemic lockdowns — as the flood control corruption scandal cratered investor and consumer confidence. That’s the third consecutive year the Marcos administration missed its growth targets.

Capital Economics expects a rebound to 6% average annual growth from 2026 to 2030, before gradually tapering off. Inflation should remain manageable at around 2.7% to 3%. The bottom line? The potential is there, but only if the Philippines can get its governance house in order. Corruption isn’t just a moral issue — it’s an economic one.

Source: Manila Bulletin