Tagtuyot Alert? PAGASA Sees El Niño Risk Building by July

PAGASA has raised an El Niño Watch after forecasting a growing chance that the climate phenomenon could begin as early as July, putting agriculture and water supply planners on alert months ahead.

The state weather bureau said the watch was issued after La Niña officially ended on March 9 and neutral conditions set in. Under PAGASA’s alert system, an El Niño Watch is raised when there is at least a 55 percent chance that El Niño will develop within the next six months.

El Niño usually raises the risk of below-normal rainfall in parts of the Philippines, which can lead to dry spells and even drought. That is a serious concern given how the 2023 to 2024 episode badly hit local agriculture and caused disruptions in several farming areas.

PAGASA said ENSO-neutral conditions remain the most likely setup through the June-July-August 2026 season. But model forecasts now show a rising probability that El Niño conditions may start during the July-August-September period, kaya maagang babala na ito for agencies and farmers.

The bureau also noted that El Niño does not mean every area will turn dry at the same time. During the habagat season, above-normal rainfall may still be experienced in the western part of the country, so local weather conditions will still need close monitoring.

Source: Philstar.com — https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/03/25/2516736/pagasa-raises-el-nio-watch-sees-possible-onset-july