Tagtuyot Alert? PAGASA Sees El Niño Risk Building by July

PAGASA has raised an El Niño Watch after forecasting a growing chance that the climate phenomenon could begin as early as July, putting agriculture and water supply planners on alert months ahead.

The state weather bureau said it issued the watch after La Niña officially ended on March 9 and neutral conditions took over. Under PAGASA’s system, an El Niño Watch is raised when there is at least a 55% probability that El Niño will develop within the next six months.

El Niño usually increases the risk of below-normal rainfall in parts of the Philippines, which can lead to dry spells and even drought. That is a serious concern given how the 2023 to 2024 episode badly hit local agriculture and disrupted farming in several areas.

PAGASA said ENSO-neutral conditions are still the most likely setup through the June-July-August 2026 season. But model forecasts now show a rising probability that El Niño conditions may start during the July-August-September period, kaya maagang warning na ito for agencies and farmers.

The bureau also stressed that El Niño does not automatically mean every area will turn dry all at once. During the habagat season, above-normal rainfall may still happen in the western part of the country, so local conditions will still need close monitoring.

Source: Philstar.com — https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2026/03/25/2516736/pagasa-raises-el-nio-watch-sees-possible-onset-july