Food Price Shock Alert: PH Among Most Vulnerable If Global Costs Surge
Nomura ranked the Philippines 21st out of 110 economies in food price vulnerability, citing household spending, imports, energy, fertilizer and El Niño risks.
The Philippines is being flagged as one of the economies most exposed to a possible global food price surge, a warning that hits directly at household budgets already squeezed by fuel, electricity and basic grocery costs.
According to The Philippine Star, Nomura Global Markets Research ranked the country 21st out of 110 economies in its updated Food Vulnerability Index, which measures exposure to food price shocks based on income levels, food’s share in household spending and dependence on net food imports.
The report gave the Philippines an index score of 100.7, placing it among the 50 economies most exposed to a sustained food price shock. Nomura noted that food made up 37.3 percent of Philippine household spending in 2023, while net food imports were equivalent to 2.7 percent of GDP in 2024.
Nomura warned that vulnerable countries could face rising inflation, wider fiscal and trade deficits, slower growth and even pressure on credit ratings if food prices climb sharply. It also said tighter policy space could force central banks to defend currencies or raise interest rates even when growth is weakening.
The risk is tied to higher oil prices, rising fertilizer costs and the possibility of a severe El Niño later this year. Nomura cited elevated odds of El Niño in the third and fourth quarters, while the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruption have already added pressure to energy and fertilizer markets. Source: The Philippine Star
