Brent Crude Jumps 9% to $79 as Markets Open — Tankers 'Spooked' at Strait of Hormuz, 14 Million Barrels a Day at Risk

Global oil markets reacted exactly as feared when trading opened Sunday evening: US crude surged more than 8% to $72.57 per barrel, while the international benchmark Brent jumped about 9% — or $6.54 — to $79.41. It's the sharpest single-session gain in years, driven by fears that the US-Iran war will spiral into a catastrophic supply disruption.

The key concern is the Strait of Hormuz, through which more than 14 million barrels per day — roughly 20% of global consumption — normally passes. 'Tankers are starting to build by the Strait of Hormuz, but nothing seems to be going through at the moment — tankers are definitely spooked,' said Matt Smith, oil analyst at energy consulting firm Kpler.

UBS analysts noted that the pace of any rebound in tanker traffic through the Strait and the extent of Iran's retaliation will be 'key for the oil price in the next few days.' It remains unclear who will ultimately govern Iran — the fourth-largest oil producer in OPEC — after Khamenei's death.

President Trump said Sunday that military operations will continue until all US objectives are met, but left the door open for de-escalation. 'They want to talk, and I have agreed to talk,' Trump told The Atlantic. He also told CNBC that operations are 'ahead of schedule.'

For the Philippines and other oil-importing nations, the implications are immediate: higher fuel costs, currency pressure, and potential inflationary spikes. If the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked for weeks rather than days, analysts warn crude could easily breach $100 — territory not seen since the early days of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Source: CNBC